The state of the real estate market in Slovenia in 2024 and forecasts for 2025
Author: Anže Lence, Real Estate Expert
In 2024, the Slovenian real estate market experienced significant shifts. After a long period of rising prices, signs of a slowdown began to appear. Rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and a lack of new construction projects affected the market dynamics. The decrease in the number of transactions became apparent, as many potential buyers found it more difficult to afford to purchase a property due to higher financing costs.
Decline in the number of transactions and high prices
Compared to 2023, the number of real estate sales began to decrease, although prices remained high. The housing market in particular experienced a decline in demand, as more and more people decided to postpone their purchase due to high interest rates and uncertainty in the market. Prices of apartments in multi-apartment buildings and residential houses stabilized somewhat, but are still at a level that is difficult for many to achieve. The decrease in the number of transactions is also noticeable in building land, which indicates weaker demand for new housing projects.
The real estate market in Slovenia is expected to experience further stabilization in 2025. Despite the cooling of the market, prices will still not decrease dramatically, as the supply of housing will remain limited. Given that the construction of new housing projects is slow and that interest rates are already lower, but still relatively high, we can expect the demand for real estate to remain limited.
Lack of affordable housing
In addition to tax changes, the continued lack of affordable housing will remain one of the key challenges for the Slovenian real estate market. With the increase in the number of vacant properties on the market, mainly due to dormant investments and the lack of incentives to rent or sell them, the problem of affordability for the wider population is likely to increase. Many potential buyers, especially the younger generation and families, have limited access to the market due to high prices and a limited number of available units.
The real estate market in Slovenia is expected to experience further stabilization in 2025. Despite the cooling of the market, prices will still not decrease dramatically, as the supply of apartments will remain limited. I will focus separately on Ljubljana, where a larger number of new constructions of over 100 residential units are expected.
Forecasts for the future and the impact of the new real estate tax
The new upcoming real estate tax could have long-term effects on the market, as only the second and all subsequent owners of real estate that is not the first residential property will be taxed. The Prime Minister explained that this tax will not apply to the first property, but will cover empty properties, which means that those who own multiple properties will face additional costs. However, many real estate experts doubt that the tax itself will convince owners of empty properties to put them on the market. The market is thus facing uncertainty, with some real estate agents concerned that such a measure could only increase the administrative burden and not necessarily stimulate more supply.
Although the Slovenian real estate market will continue to experience challenges in 2025, the cooling of price growth may bring opportunities for those looking for long-term investments. However, measures will be needed to encourage the construction of new housing, increase accessibility and find long-term solutions to improve the management of vacant properties. The tax on second property and all that follows may influence the decision-making of owners, but the true dynamics of the market will also depend on broader economic and social changes.
Anže Lence, Real Estate Expert